Tuesday, 8 September 2026 Independent · Evidence graded Index Q3 2026
Baseline
Preventive medicine, examined.
Section

Evidence

Graded appraisals of the tests and interventions sold in preventive medicine. Each piece states what the literature supports, what it does not, and what would change our grade.


Multi-cancer early detection

The cancer blood test finally has a big trial. Read the sensitivity number twice.

PATHFINDER 2 put Galleri through 35,878 people and produced the strongest evidence any multi-cancer blood test has. It also showed the test misses about six in ten cancers, and both facts are compatible with it being useful.

Baseline evidence grade B-: Promising trial evidence that does not yet reach a hard outcome, or a single registrational study without independent replication.
Cardiorespiratory fitness

The best-evidenced number in any premium health check is the one nobody markets

Cardiorespiratory fitness predicts all-cause mortality more powerfully than almost anything else a clinic can measure, with no observed upper limit of benefit. It is also cheap, unglamorous, and buried on page four of most programme brochures.

Baseline evidence grade B: Consistent evidence of benefit, but from trials with surrogate endpoints, single trials, or strong longitudinal cohorts.
Coronary calcium

The cardiac test with the best guideline support is missing from almost every premium check

A coronary calcium score costs a fraction of a whole-body MRI, appears by name in the ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline, and reclassifies risk downward in about 40% of intermediate-risk people who score zero. In Germany it is also, as a pure screening test, not legally available.

Baseline evidence grade B: Consistent evidence of benefit, but from trials with surrogate endpoints, single trials, or strong longitudinal cohorts.
Screening imaging

Whole-body MRI has never been shown to save a life

Screening MRI sits at the centre of nearly every premium health programme in Europe and North America. No randomised trial has shown it reduces mortality in asymptomatic adults, and the evidence on what it costs the people it does not help is unusually specific.

Baseline evidence grade C: Mechanistically plausible and widely used, but no trial evidence of net benefit in the screened population. Updated 1 Sept 2026